Just over two weeks ago, Afghans went to polling stations to participate in their second Presidential election since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001. Hopes for a strong stand against the perennial threats of terrorism and corruption were high, but the outcome was far less than satisfactory for both domestic and international onlookers. Millions of Afghans voted; an estimated 40-50 percent of the 17 million Afghans eligible for voting. However, more than 70 percent of the population had voted in the 2004 election.1
The results of the election are still unclear and the international community awaits a final decision that so far has had no definitive timeline. Final results may not be available until September 17th. Opposition candidates are poised to launch a legitimacy challenge and legal challenge to incumbent Hamid Karzai, if he is deemed the winner.2 The problems and challenges, with roots in the country’s fragmented structures, security, and rampant terrorism, were too overwhelming. The elections merely highlighted many of the nation’s troubles and weaknesses.
More than an Election: A Test for America’s Afghan Strategy and an Opportunity for the Taliban
Hardly a day goes by when stories about American troops in Afghanistan are not on the front page of nearly every major periodical. Since the United States launched two wars in 2001, in Afghanistan and Iraq, this region of the world has endured tremendous hardship and been at the top of the American foreign policy agenda.
The war in Afghanistan began in October 2001 as the United States military operation, “Operation Enduring Freedom,” was launched as a response to the September 11th attacks in New York City. As such, stabilization of the nation and counterterrorism have been key points of foreign policy for the United States government. With the removal of all American troops from Iraq in August 2009, the Obama Administration has switched its focus entirely from Iraq to the war in Afghanistan.
An Afghan Civilian Cemetery
Often called the “crossroads of central Asia,” Afghanistan has been a victim of the rise and fall of the Taliban, a religious fundamentalist group whose rise to power in the 1990s was a reaction to the anarchy and warlordism of the removal of Soviet forces in the post-Cold War era.3 The Taliban seeks to impose an extreme interpretation of Islam, which often condones serious human rights violations particularly against women and children.4 Under pressure from the US and other anti-Taliban forces, the Taliban disintegrated and the city of Kabul fell from its leadership in November 2001.5
Nonetheless, the Taliban continues to wreak havoc in the nation seeking refuge in neighboring countries such as Pakistan to carry out its mission. The August 2009 elections were something of a face-off between the Obama administration and the terrorist groups al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The stakes were seen as much higher than just the election of the next President of Afghanistan.
Rather, the elections were a chance for Afghans to judge the American and NATO occupation as essentially credible, ushering in the ultimate display of democracy: elections.6 The build-up to the elections were important not only for the Afghans, but for the entire American and NATO-supported mission, something that a legitimate and credible election could have greatly supported. On the other hand, for the Taliban, the election was a chance to showcase its implicit and informal power and control over the nation.7
As it stands now, the Taliban has successfully, at least in part, wielded their power through violence and threats such that voter turnout was less than optimal in August. Additionally, promises of a second or third run-off among candidates do not bode well for a credible and legitimate election.
A Plethora of Challenges to Holding Elections
Afghanistan remains an unstable and internationally dependent nation whose lifeline to foreign aid and security is indispensable. Scarce human resources, economic dependence, autocratic mentalities, and religious fundamentalism are bold and pervading realities for Afghans.
The main obstacles to successful elections include logistical failures, poor security, candidate corruption and fraud.
Logistics
The 2009 elections in Afghanistan were a logistical nightmare. The massive logistical operations of organizing polls and registering voters were overwhelming for a country with weak infrastructure and poor systems in place to start with. A two-step plan was formulated by Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the United Nations’ elections support project UNDP/ELECT.8 All election materials needed to be delivered from the IEC in Kabul to the different provinces, followed then by delivery from the provinces to the individual districts.
Facing violent threats from the Taliban made deliveries even more difficult, as well as the added pressure of trying to meet time limits. The Taliban sought to undermine the elections through an interruption of its logistics. The complicated process of delivering the materials was opportunity enough for disruption. In addition, many Afghans were forced to travel far distances in order to vote on August 20th adding further complications to the process and, in turn, greater chances of negative interference.
Security and Terrorism
The Asia Times wrote on September 2, 2009, “In Afghanistan, war trumps elections.”9 An estimated 26 civilians and security forces were killed during the elections with reports of districts where not a single person voted for fear of Taliban retaliation.10 Well-publicized threats from the Taliban included cutting off the fingers of those who voted. An overall lack of national security, even with American and NATO troops deployed to the country, has been perhaps the greatest of the obstacles to a successful, democratic Presidential election.
The Taliban made a grand statement in its attack of a Kabul government bank on the eve of the Presidential elections.11 A total of 20 suicide attackers entered the city wearing explosives, an event that occurred after a car bombing of a NATO envoy a few days before. Violence continued to escalate just before polling began.12 There is no doubt that scattered rocket attacks and intimidation threats limited the voter turnout. The security situation and the credibility of Afghan leadership have sunk so rapidly that the ability to hold an election was always in doubt.13
The heavily battered south had few voters, almost no women and only a few men among them.14 The Taliban was successful in diverting voters, mostly in the south, and even those that did vote experienced enough fear that retribution remains a viable concern in the post-election environment. A reported 73 attacks in 15 provinces were accounted for on the day of the election.
Corruption, Fraud, and Ballot-Stuffing
The elections were also beset by intense corruption and fraud, according to the BBC News Service.15 An Afghan working for the BBC reported the sale of voting cards to individuals in packets of 1,000 for approximately $10 a piece.16 The elections have been deemed fraudulent from several sources; charges that onlookers believe could ultimately sway the elections unfairly. The Electoral Complaints Commission received 225 complaints in just three days following the August 20th elections.17
One of the challengers to incumbent President Hamid Karzai, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, widened allegations against Karzai in connection to corruption and fraud.18 Abdullah claims that many ballots for Karzai were coming in from volatile southern districts where no Afghans were actually voting.19
In total, an incumbent president, Karzai, and thirty-seven challengers including two women vied for the votes of the 17 million Afghans registered to vote.20 Despite the presence of thirty international and domestic election observer groups, stifling corruption amid the backdrop of Taliban resurgence was a paralyzing obstacle for a successful election. One challenger to Karzai, former finance minister Ashraf Ghani stated, Afghanistan’s corruption had become a cancer that was “eating through the society.”21
A report from Al-Jazeera about the fraudulent nature of the elections and comments from challenger Abdullah Abdullah
A Scenario Where No One Won
The opportunity to display a unified, improving Afghanistan was ultimately wasted with the August 20th elections. Afghanistan’s fledging democracy received little buttressing. Creating a strong, well-supported government is just as important to the Afghan people as fighting against the Taliban. Britain’s ambassador to Afghanistan cheered before the elections, “A bad day for the Taliban, and a good day for the people of Afghanistan,” although some argue that in the wake of the elections, the reverse is in fact true.22 The task of legitimizing itself on the international level and gaining internal respect and cohesion has been made more difficult by the recent election.
The elections were not a complete failure with a relatively competitive race between the incumbent and his top challenger, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. Some estimates show that only 5 percent of polling stations were completely inaccessible for security reasons.23 Nonetheless, Afghans need a government worth fighting for and to experience a true sense of democracy without corruption, graft, and violence that eclipse the voice of the people.