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Two Historic Middle East Elections, with Two Radically Different Results |
| Published On: 06-17-2009 |
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Related Issue Briefs:
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| March 14 coalition: A coalition of Sunni, Christian and Druze parties -- led by Said Hariri. "March 14" comes from the date of Lebanon's 2005 Cedar Revolution, when thousands of Lebanese protested Syria's presence in Lebanon. |
| March 8 alliance: “Composed mainly of Shiite Muslims and Maronite Christians, M8 aligns Lebanon's two main Shiite parties (the Amal Movement and Hezbollah, which the United States lists as a terrorist organization) with a secular party called the Free Patriotic Movement (which is led by Lebanon's former military commander Michel Aoun) and other smaller groups.” “The name "March 8" comes from the date of a 2005 pro-Syria rally organized by Hezbollah a few weeks after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.” http://www.cfr.org/publication/19578/lebanons_parliamentary_elections_june_7_2009.html?breadcrumb=%2F |
| Saad Hariri is the son of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Dynastic politics are common in Lebanon’s democracy, as political careers are often transferred from father to son, husband to wife, and brother to brother. http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/lebanon2009/2009/05/2009527142833966266.html |
| Doctor: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is referred to as the “doctor” because of his PhD in Traffic Management. |
| Zahra Rahnavard is the second woman to serve as Dean of Al-Zahra University, a prestigious Iranian university. |
While Iran is getting all the news, Lebanon’s elections are just as historic. Both reflect a major shift in the Middle East. In Iran, Mir Hussein Moussavi, the favored candidate amongst reformers, youth and upper class Iranians, lost to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the current President and favored candidate of the lower class and conservatives. After the election results were broadcast, riots and mass arrests took place around the country. Opposition supporters claimed the results were rigged.
In Lebanon, the pro-Western, March 14 coalition won the majority of seats (71 out of 128) in the June 7th Parliamentary elections, beating the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance (which were expected to win by a landslide). A peaceful transition of power is expected to occur, although the coalition government still needs to be formed.
With 60 percent of the population under 30 in Iran1 and median age of 29.3 years in Lebanon,2 youth in these countries are increasingly wired and connected, and politically active. In Iran (population 70 million), 47 million people have cell phones and 21 million have Internet access.3 Many of the Iran’s young activists have chosen to stay in Iran, rather than seek asylum abroad, which has been the common practice over the last 30 years.4 In Lebanon (population nearly 4 million), about 25 percent of the population (1.26 million) have cell phones and 950,000 (as of 2006) are Internet users.5
Both elections reflect the impact of globalization, as noted by the increase use of social media. Taboos are starting to be broken as well: public appearances by Moussavi’s wife on the campaign trail and the changing of ethnic voting patterns in Lebanon (however slight).
Political Background
Iran
Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has had a hybrid political system, with an elected President and non-elected religious leadership. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is the highest ranking political and religious figure in the country; he appoints commanders of the armed forces, chief judges, and six of the Islamic jurists who sit on the 12-member Guardian Council (the other six members are appointed by the Parliament). Khamenei has the final say for all major government policies, both national and international. Khamenei also leads the Revolutionary Guard, a military force used to enforce its policies, when necessary.
The elected President is in charge of economic policy and other executive duties; he can sign agreements with foreign governments, appoint ambassadors and select the Cabinet (who must be approved by Parliament.) The Parliament (Majlis) consists of 290 publicly elected representatives. The Guardian Council can veto parliamentary decisions and veto electoral candidates.6
In the 2009 elections, Ayatollah Khamenei and the Guardian Council reviewed all candidates and allowed only four out of 475 to run for president.
Lebanon
Since the end of Lebanon’s Civil War, Parliamentary seats have been allocated 50 percent to Muslims and 50 percent to Christians; seats are further subdivided amongst Lebanon's 18 officially recognized religious sects. The 400,000 Palestinians living in Lebanon, many in refugee camps, are not allowed to vote in the elections. Expatriates must return to Lebanon to vote in an election.7
The 128 Parliamentary seats are distributed via Lebanon’s 26 electoral districts. People can vote for more than one Parliamentary candidate, using block voting.8 In a particular electoral district, the Sunni candidate with the most votes will get the Sunni seat; if a Druze candidate has more votes than the Sunni, he/she will never get the Sunni seat. Not all religious sects have seats in every district.
 In 2008, as part of a compromise to avoid another civil war, Lebanon gave the opposition the right to veto. Saad Hariri, head of the March 14 coalition, plans to get rid of this power.9
In the 2009 elections, anyone who wanted to run for Parliament was allowed to run. No one has disputed the results and everyone believes the results were counted accurately and fairly. The elections were significant because the parties aligned themselves differently; in the last major elections, the March 14 coalition ran as partners with Hezbollah.
Web 2.0
 Web2.0 tools were used in both elections, although were more wide-spread in Iran. YouTube, Facebook and blogs were used to connect people during the campaign, at least until the government shut down access to the sites. Thousands of young Moussavi volunteers campaigned using cell phones. They used grass-roots organizing tactics, travelling to villages and interviewing voters.10 On Election Day, Moussavi supporters used text messages to warn supporters not to wear green (color of the campaign) in order to avoid discrimination or harassment and to vote at schools instead of mosques.11
The Moussavi campaign borrowed tactics from the 1979 Revolution to garner support of older voters, such as forming human chains in various Iranian cities. On the eve of the elections, millions came out in Tehran to create a chain; they shouted "Death to dictator, whether a Shah or a doctor" (hearkening to the Revolution)12 and “Ahmadi, bye bye”13 (chanted by younger voters).
Post-elections, both Moussavi and Ahmadinejad supporters are using Facebook and Twitter to organize rallies on behalf of their candidates and YouTube to post footage of the rallies. Supporters outside the country are helping Iranians circumvent firewalls. With mainstream foreign media barred from the country, including Arab press, the main source of information about the situation comes directly from the people via Twitter feeds, Facebooks pages, Youtube videos, Flickr photos, and blogs. The Revolutionary Guard is trying to stop the Web2.0 communications as well.
In Lebanon, Web2.0 features and portals are just starting to grow; elections.naharnet.com is one of the first Lebanese web2.0 portal sites to track the elections. Social Media Exchange, a non-profit, Internet training and facilitation initiative based in Beirut, has been training Lebanese activists to use social media. Bloggers have been active for many years, including those who were active in the 2006 war with Israel.14 The blog, http://lebelections.blogspot.com/, was specifically developed to monitor the elections.
Changing Role of Women and Minorities
In Iran, Zahra Rahnavard joined her husband, Hussein Moussavi, on the campaign trail and at political events and rallies. At one rally she stated “Our messages to Iranians during election rallies are ‘freedom of thoughts, opening up the [political] environment, establishing a sound economy, increasing public participation . . . eliminating discrimination against women, creating job opportunities . . . and helping the youth to think freely.”15 Moussavi has pledged to revise discriminatory laws against women and believes in legal monogamy. Rahnavard's public appearances are the first made by the wife of a political figure, since the time of the Shah.
In Lebanon, the main issue is the divisions of society, not by sex, but by ethnic groups. For the most part in the 2009 elections, Armenians, Maronites, Druze, Shiites, and Sunnis still voted for their candidates based on ethnicity.16 Lebanese tend to vote for candidates with the same ethnicity because of fears that their traditions and cultures may disappear if they are not represented.17
Nonetheless, many Christians did not vote for the Maronite Christian candidate, Michael Aoun, who joined the March 8 alliance; he barely held onto his seat, with a margin of only 2,000 voters.18 In years past he was so popular that people mentioned he might become the next President.
Implications for the Future
Iran has not seen demonstrations this strong since the 1979 Revolution. Following the death of seven protestors, the Guardian Council agreed to a partial recount of disputed ballots, but will not annul the vote. The opposition declined the offer, believing it was not enough.
In a region, where sham elections are common, opposition leaders are jailed or murdered and many freedoms are curtailed, these elections are a real step towards a real democracy. Moussavi proposes to reverse discriminatory practices against women, give privacy rights, disband the morality police, and allow a free press.19 These changes would be revolutionary, if they occurred.
With the Ayatollah Khamenei still in charge behind the scenes, does it truly matter if Moussavi or Ahmadinejad wins the elections? In Lebanon, with power-sharing agreements still required, the March 14 coalition will have to work with Hizbollah-supported political parties to pass legislation. Will Lebanon be able to carry out significantly different policies? Despite these questions, many believe that this may be the dawn of a new Middle East. Has a revolution started?
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1 Fifield, Anna. “Young Iranians raise voices for change.” Financial Times. June 11, 2009.
2 “Lebanon.” CIA Factbook.
3 Mahtafar, Tara. “Iran: A female voter's perspective.” Al Jazeera. June 11, 2009
4 Entekhabifard, Camelia. “Tehran’s Eternal Youth.” New York Times. June 12, 2009.
5 “Lebanon.” CIA Factbook.
6 “The Iranian political system.” Al Jazeera. June 11, 2009
7 “Lebanon's election system.” Al Jazeera. June 7, 2009.
8 Ibid.
9 Cummins, Chip and Nada Raad. “Lebanon Begins Test of Forming New Government.” Wall Street Journal. June 9, 2009.
10 Fassihi, Farnaz. “In Iran Vote, a Challenger Looks to Past.” Wall Street Journal. June 12, 2009
11 Fielding-Smith, Abigail. ” Mousavi's aides fear dirty tricks could swing result.” The Independent. June 12, 2009.
12 Fassihi, Farnaz. “In Iran Vote, a Challenger Looks to Past.” Wall Street Journal. June 12, 2009
13 Fifield, Anna. “Young Iranians raise voices for change.” Financial Times. June 11, 2009.
14 Azraq, Mohammad. “Lebanon: Activists Experiment with Social Media.” Global Voices. April 20, 2009
15 Bozorgmehr, Najmeh. “Iran candidate’s wife challenges convention.” Financial Times. May 22, 2009.
16 Abrams, Elliot. “Lebanon’s Triumph, Iran’s Travesty.” New York Times. June 12, 2009
17 Ibrahim, Ahmad. “Lebanese politics: Family affair.” Al Jazeera.
18 “The Elections Results Broken Down.” Lebanese Elections 2009. June 10, 2009.
19 Mahtafar, Tara. “Iran: A female voter's perspective.” Al Jazeera. June 11, 2009
Youtube Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0MkATcn04M
*Pictures: http://www.flickr.com/photos/statephotos/3485912905/, http://www.flickr.com/photos/60053005@N00/3632248789/ |
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