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Nonproliferation represents the intersection of nuclear technology and geopolitics. Once the awesome power of nuclear technology was fully understood, it immediately became apparent that its applications needed to be carefully regulated and controlled. From the early days of the nuclear age to the late 1960s, only five countries possessed the scientific knowledge and technical capacity to produce nuclear weapons: the United States, the Soviet Union, China, the United Kingdom, and France.
Realizing that the proliferation of materials and know-how represented a lethal danger to all nations, the U.S. and Soviet Union led the way in developing a set of principles for the protection of humanity that were enshrined in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
The treaty, effective as of 1970, has three primary components: nonproliferation, disarmament, and the right of peaceful use of nuclear technology. 1 In total, 191 nations have signed on to the NPT, including the five original nuclear powers. Three nations refused to join, however: India, Pakistan (both known to possess nuclear-weapons technology by 1974 and 1987 respectively), and Israel (which has not conducted public tests but has been suspected of possessing weapons since around 1967). North Korea also withdrew from the treaty in 2003.
Possession of Nuclear Weapons
The treaty acknowledged that only the five existing nuclear powers, also known as “nuclear weapons states” (NWS), were permitted possession of nuclear weapons. It was agreed that nuclear states would not to transfer weapons technology to non-nuclear states, while the non-nuclear states in turn promised not to seek access to such technology. In addition, NWS were not to attack non-nuclear countries unless provoked by a nuclear attack or an attack carried out with the support of a NWS. 2
Disarmament
The treaty expressed a general consensus that not only the use but even the threatened use of nuclear force was morally objectionable. It called for the five NWS to reduce their stockpiles of nuclear weapons, a process known as disarmament.
With the advent of the Cold War in 1945, the United States and Soviet Union had engaged in an arms race to increase and perfect their nuclear arsenals. Soon, each possessed tens of thousands of warheads, far more than would be necessary even if a major conflict were to erupt.
A delicate balance emerged thanks to the new strategy of deterrence: the certainty of mutually assured destruction (MAD) if either nation were to employ nuclear force encouraged both to avoid exercising this option.
The complete history of the disarmament movement is beyond the scope of this brief, but two landmark treaties deserve some attention. The first is the Partial Test Ban Treaty, signed in 1963. It prohibited the testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, underwater and in outer space. While the partial ban was widely considered a success, no further action was taken to advance the disarmament agenda until 1996, when the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty forbidding all forms of open nuclear testing came into effect. Notably, the United States has signed but not ratified this treaty.3
In 2002, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush agreed to limit their stockpiles of nuclear weapons to between 1,700 and 2,200 by 2012, but many details about how this arrangement will be implemented remain unclear.The final compliance deadline coincides with the expiration of the treaty, so it is possible that neither side will reduce their nuclear warhead capacity.4 President Obama reiterated the desire for both countries to reduce warheads by 80 percent, which led to the signing of a nuclear arms reduction treaty by Russian President Dimitry Medvedev and President Obama in April of 2010.5
Right of Peaceful Use
To compensate non-nuclear states for forsaking the ability to pursue nuclear weapons, all signatory nations were granted the right to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Since many methods of nuclear power generation require enriched uranium fuel to operate, some believe this third pillar is a loophole that allows virtually any country to work with and purchase materials that could be used to produce nuclear weapons.
To address this concern, the United States has required since 1978 that “non-nuclear weapons countries [must] open their entire nuclear programs to ‘full-scope’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring before they can receive nuclear exports from the United States.” 6
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NON-PARTIES TO THE NPT The rejection of the NPT by India, Pakistan, and Israel has thus far prevented these nations from participating in the global market for nuclear materials. Thus, achieving the military goal of nuclear armament has come at the expense of the proper development of the civilian nuclear industry in these countries. Isolation from the international community has forced the three nations—India, in particular—to focus on reprocessing technologies and the perfection of an independent fuel cycle, creating precisely the kind of proliferation risks the NPT was engineered to prevent. 7 (See box “The U.S.-India Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement” in section title “Nuclear Energy and Development.”) For its part, India has challenged the legitimacy of the NPT’s division of countries into nuclear “haves” and “have nots” by refusing to become a party to the agreement and then detonating a nuclear device in 1998. 8 Diplomatic efforts to integrate India, Pakistan, and Israel into the global nonproliferation framework have thus far proven unsuccessful, though some important developments will be discussed below. Two countries have posed a particularly difficult challenge from within the existing nonproliferation framework. North Korea became the first signatory nation to withdraw from the NPT in early 2003, citing a need to defend itself against deepening American hostility. North Korea had long been suspected of secretly developing a weapons program with help from Pakistan. 9 Following North Korea’s withdrawal, six-party talks involving China, South Korea, Russia, Japan, the United States, and North Korea were initiated to seek a diplomatic resolution to the situation. A preliminary agreement was reached in late 2005 in which North Korea would forfeit its weapons in exchange for American assistance in upgrading its civilian nuclear power plants with modern light water reactors. But North Korea detonated its first nuclear device in October 2006, sparking universal condemnation among the international community and throwing the delicate negotiations over its nuclear program into turmoil. The country remains a troubling security threat to much of East Asia and the world.10 Ever since, there have been ongoing efforts by the U.S. to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. In June 2008, as a symbolic step to stop its nuclear weapons program, North Korea blew up the most renowned symbol of its plutonium production – a 60-foot cooling tower at one of the country’s main power plants. Around the same time, President Bush verified that North Korea had been removed from the U.S. list of “state sponsors of terrorism”. However, whether this means that North Korea will altogether halt its plutonium production remains to be seen: “’It’s symbolic. But in real terms, whether demolishing or not a cooling tower that has already been disabled doesn’t make much difference,’ said Lee Ji-sue, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Myongji University.” (New York Times, June 28, 2008). For more information on North Korea, click here: North Korea: Negotiating International Law. Iran The second nation that has posed a challenge to the global nonproliferation regime is Iran. The Iranians have always claimed not to want nuclear weapons but have had a contentious relationship with the international community about the nature of their activities for two decades while remaining a party to the NPT. 11 Both the United States and European Union believe that Iran’s uranium enrichment activities are at least partially directed at developing nuclear weapons, a fear that is exacerbated by the fact that Iran could eventually become the first nuclear power in the unstable Middle East region. Iran announced it had successfully enriched uranium in early 2006 and subsequently barred the entry of a number of IAEA inspectors into the country. Talks over Iran’s nuclear program are ongoing and have been complicated by North Korea’s recent nuclear tests. 12 Despite demands to stop, Iran continues to its nuclear program. According to the New York Times (July 31, 2008), “[the country’s supreme leader] Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments suggested that Iran might be preparing to take a hard line on the demands by six nations — the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany — that it stop enriching uranium by this weekend.” Currently, the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, admits to an active nuclear program. He has denied political interest in building a nuclear bomb, but many still see Iran and North Korea’s nuclear capabilities as a threat to global peace and security. VIDEO: “Interview from Ahmadinejad on his current nuclear capabilities.” http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=3289364n |
Proliferation and Globalization
In the era of globalization, when the freedom of movement for people and goods has reached unprecedented levels, many consider nuclear proliferation to be the greatest threat to international security. A single terrorist armed with a nuclear weapon could unleash unimaginable destruction against virtually any target.
The power of rogue actors has become all too apparent in recent years, and the world’s only hope of avoiding catastrophe lies in destroying and securing nuclear weapons and regulating the circulation of nuclear materials before they fall into the wrong hands. As globalization continues to widen and deepen, concerns over proliferation will become more central to international relations and diplomacy.
To learn more about balancing security and ending nuclear proliferation, click here.
3 “History of the Comprehensive-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)”
4 “President Bush, President Putin Sign Nuclear Arms Treaty”
5 “Russia and U.S. Sign Nuclear Arms Reduction Pact.”
9 “Fact Sheet: North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Program”
10 “North Korea Talks Set To Resume”
12 “Iran Declares Key Nuclear Advance;” “Iran Bars 38 Nuclear Inspectors”